Strategy Reference
Everything you need to understand how OnlyETFs works — from running your first backtest to the math behind each of the 15 built-in allocation strategies.
Getting Started
Pick your ETFs
Select from 16 pre-seeded ETFs (SPY, QQQ, GLD, TLT…) or type any ticker. Prices are fetched and cached automatically.
Choose a strategy
Select one of 15 built-in strategies, from simple Equal Weight to Dual Momentum or Minimum Variance.
Run the backtest
Set a date range and initial capital. The vectorized engine runs server-side and returns results in seconds.
Analyze metrics
Review Sharpe, Sortino, Calmar, max drawdown, alpha, beta, and full equity curve vs SPY benchmark.
Metrics Glossary
Sharpe RatioExcess return per unit of total volatility (annualized). Higher is better.
Sortino RatioLike Sharpe but only penalizes downside volatility. Better for asymmetric strategies.
Calmar RatioAnnualized return divided by max drawdown. Measures return per unit of tail risk.
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline over the backtest period, expressed as a percentage.
AlphaExcess return above the benchmark (SPY) after adjusting for market exposure (Beta).
BetaSensitivity to benchmark moves. Beta > 1 amplifies market swings; < 1 dampens them.
Information RatioActive return over the benchmark divided by tracking error. Measures consistency of outperformance.
Passive Strategies
5 strategiesEqual Weight
Uniform allocation across all selected assets. Zero forecasting, maximum simplicity.
Divides capital equally among all symbols in the portfolio. On each rebalance date the weights are reset to 1/N where N is the number of assets. No market-cap bias, no optimization.
Beginners, low-turnover investors, baseline benchmark comparison.
Risk Parity
Each asset contributes an equal share of total portfolio risk, not equal capital.
Weights are proportional to the inverse of each asset's rolling volatility over a configurable lookback window. High-volatility assets receive smaller allocations; low-volatility assets receive larger ones. The result is a portfolio where no single asset dominates risk.
riskParityWindowdefault: 63— Rolling volatility window in trading daysInvestors who want diversification by risk rather than by dollar amount.
60/40 Portfolio
The classic 60% equity / 40% bond split — the textbook diversified portfolio.
Assigns a fixed percentage to equity ETFs and the remainder to fixed-income ETFs. The split is configurable. Quarterly rebalancing keeps the ratio from drifting too far during trending markets.
equityPctdefault: 60— Percentage allocated to equity (0–100)Long-term investors seeking a simple, historically reliable risk/return trade-off.
All Weather
Ray Dalio's all-season portfolio designed to perform across all economic environments.
Fixed allocation: 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate bonds, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities. The weights are engineered so that each economic regime (growth, recession, inflation, deflation) is balanced by at least one asset that performs well in that environment.
Investors who prioritize steady risk-adjusted returns over maximum growth.
Ivy Portfolio
5-asset endowment model inspired by Harvard and Yale's multi-decade track records.
Equal-weight allocation across five broad asset classes: US equity, international equity, real estate (REITs), commodities, and fixed income. Mimics the diversification principles used by top university endowments without the alternatives exposure.
Investors looking for a globally diversified, institution-grade starting point.
Active Strategies
5 strategies12-Month Momentum
Long the top-quintile performers over the past 12 months, skipping the most recent month.
Calculates total return for each asset over the past 252 trading days, excluding the final 21 days (skip-month to avoid short-term reversal). Assets are ranked and the top N% by momentum receive equal-weight allocation; the rest receive zero. Rebalanced monthly.
momentumLookbackdefault: 252— Lookback in trading days (≈12 months)momentumTopPctdefault: 30— Top percentile to include (e.g. 30 = top 30%)Investors comfortable with momentum crashes; works best with a diverse universe of ETFs.
Dual Momentum (GEM)
Antonacci's Global Equity Momentum — combines absolute and relative momentum filters.
First applies a relative momentum test: compares assets against each other over the lookback. Then applies an absolute momentum test: if the top asset's return is negative versus T-bills, the portfolio moves to aggregate bonds or cash instead. Rebalanced monthly.
momentumLookbackdefault: 252— Lookback window in trading daysInvestors who want momentum with a defensive absolute-return overlay.
Trend Following (SMA)
Long when price is above the N-day simple moving average; rotates to bonds or cash when below.
For each asset, computes the N-day SMA. If the current price is above the SMA the asset receives a long allocation; if below it is replaced by a bond or cash proxy. This keeps the portfolio in assets with upward momentum and avoids sustained drawdowns.
smaPerioddefault: 200— SMA lookback in trading daysInvestors who want to participate in bull markets while limiting bear-market exposure.
Mean Reversion (RSI)
Buys oversold assets and exits overbought ones using the Relative Strength Index.
Calculates RSI for each asset over the configured period. Assets with RSI below the oversold threshold receive long allocations proportional to their undervaluation. Assets with RSI above 70 are trimmed or exited. Rebalanced weekly to capture short-term reversions.
rsiPerioddefault: 14— RSI calculation period in trading daysrsiOversolddefault: 35— RSI level below which an asset is considered oversoldShort-to-medium term investors in range-bound or mean-reverting markets.
Volatility Timing
Scales total equity exposure inversely to recent realized volatility.
Measures the portfolio's 21-day realized volatility and targets a constant volatility level. When markets are calm, the strategy holds full equity exposure. When volatility spikes, it de-risks to reduce position sizes. Rebalanced weekly.
Investors who want smoother drawdowns without fully exiting equities.
Factor Strategies
3 strategiesValue (P/B Factor)
Long the lowest price-to-book quintile to capture the value premium.
Ranks assets by price-to-book ratio and allocates to the cheapest quintile with equal weighting. Grounded in decades of academic research showing that cheap assets (by fundamental metrics) outperform over long horizons. Annual rebalance keeps turnover low.
Patient, long-horizon investors willing to endure multi-year value underperformance.
Low Volatility Factor
Exploits the low-volatility anomaly: low-risk assets tend to outperform on a risk-adjusted basis.
Constructs a minimum-variance basket from the asset universe using rolling covariance estimation. Overweights assets with low volatility and low correlation to each other. Contradicts the CAPM prediction that higher beta earns higher return.
Defensive investors who want equity-like long-run returns with meaningfully lower drawdowns.
Multi-Factor Blend
Equal-weight combination of momentum, risk parity, and mean reversion signals.
Runs three sub-strategies in parallel — 12-month momentum, risk parity, and RSI mean reversion — and averages their weight vectors into a single allocation. Diversifies across factor premia so that when one factor is in a drawdown another may compensate.
Investors who want broad factor exposure without committing to a single style.
Risk Management
2 strategiesMinimum Variance
Finds the portfolio on the efficient frontier with the lowest possible volatility.
Uses Markowitz mean-variance optimization with Ledoit-Wolf covariance shrinkage to stabilize the covariance matrix estimate. Solves for the weight vector that minimizes portfolio variance subject to long-only and full-investment constraints. No return forecasts are used.
minVarWindowdefault: 126— Covariance estimation window in trading days (≈6 months)Risk-averse investors who want the least volatile portfolio the universe can deliver.
Drawdown Control
Dynamically reduces exposure when the portfolio's rolling drawdown exceeds a threshold.
Tracks the rolling peak-to-current drawdown in real time. When drawdown exceeds the configured threshold the strategy scales down equity weights proportionally and parks capital in a short-duration bond proxy. Exposure is restored gradually as prices recover. Rebalanced weekly.
Investors with a low drawdown tolerance, such as those approaching retirement.